Repeal of three farm laws may clear road to Assembly elections in 2022 for the BJP and slide the country into socialism
20 November 2021
Today’s (19th Nov) news on the repeal of three farm laws is in a sense breaking news. Nobody expected such an announcement, as the Indian Government had repeatedly held its ground on the farm laws that these are in the interest of farmers. It had agreed to revise the laws to the extent to remove prejudices against the farmers' interests or to meet the purpose of natural justice. Earlier, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the party in power had repeatedly vilified the farmers’ protests calling them names. And hence, this development is a sudden U-turn. Prime Minister Narendra Modi talked of sincere efforts of his Government to improve the farmers’ conditions through enacting these laws. He felt that the Government failed in convincing the farmers their merits and sincerely apologised to the farmers and people for the hardship they suffered.
These farm laws were passed a year ago against which farmers especially of the North India had been protesting in large number with all their might in Delhi to be heard by those in seats of power. The vehement protests have even led to more than 700 deaths of farmers as they braced hardships. The farmers had planned to celebrate the first anniversary of their protests by marching in groups up to the winter season of the Parliament. The Government on its behalf slapped cases against protesting farmers, as their protest on the occasion of Independence day had turned violent and caused loss of property as well of lives.
Prime Minister chose to repeal the farm laws on this day, the 552nd birth anniversary of Guru Nanak, founder of Sikhism, which is celebrated as Prakash purb (festival of light-or of enlightenment). In a way, it is a master stroke to assuage the hurt feelings, as farmers’ protests were prominently led by the sikh community especially of Punjab.
As reactions come in, it is said that politician of the stature of prime minister has apologised which is not expected of him. Like him, most politicians are obstinate, not known to be apologetic or accept their faults, even if there is large scale condemnation of their actions or opinions. Yet, prime minister did so. Was it out of sincere desire to reach out to the people? Or was it opportunistic move as some saw writings on the wall with respect to the bleak prospects of victory in the forthcoming elections.
It is well known that the BJP which the Prime Minister belongs to has played a communal card calling itself as saviour of Hindus. It served to consolidate hindu votes to win over. And this served to marginalise other communities especially Muslims. As late as April 2021 when Bengal elections were held, BJP sought to play Hindu vs Muslim card to seize the power from the allegedly muslim appeasing Mamata Banerjee. After loss of West Bengal and with large scale discontent over inflation, unemployment, contraction of economy as a result of covid-19 pandemic as well as farm protests, it probably sensed fear of loss of power in the coming elections in 2022, especially in Uttar Pradesh. Loss of power in UP will adversely affect BJP’s prospects in 2024 where elections to Indian parliament will decide the future of BJP and of the present prime minister.
Lakhimpur Kheri (UP) that saw the farmers’ protest and consequently death of some farmers at the behest of BJP workers, with BJP ministers’ son driving recklessly over the farmers has become a talking point for the opposition parties trying to gain visibility and emerge as saviour of farming community. Despite demand of the farmers to dismiss the minister at the Centre whose son is reportedly responsible for killing of farmers at Lakhimpur Kheri, the prime minister did nothing. Farmers are agitated over indifference of the Government over farmers’ death as well as indifference to inflation of farm inputs and dwindling farm income. Discontent had reached the prime minister.
Rather than the interests of farmers, it is the interest of the ruling party that dictated this calculated decision of the Prime Minister to repeal the laws.
I did not feel happiness in this repeal, as I had supported farm laws, believing that change in the current situation will improve the farmers’ prospects in the future. Of course, market forces make the stakeholders competitive and the farming needs to be competitive. However, as the farmers are growing in number, especially those with marginal and small farm holdings, they are unable to make a substantial living. They have become apprehensive of open market that are likely to be manipulated by the big players with money. And hence, they are demanding law to guarantee the minimum support price for all the crops that they are cultivating, a catch 22 situation. Agreeing to this demand will mean more spending on agricultural crops, without even realising break even on its sale price, thereby subsidising food security on a large scale. There will be little scope for export as cost of production will be more than the international prices of farm products dictated by the market forces and occasionally subsidized by their Governments. With this vicious circle, the Government will have little scope of manoeuvre to provide funds for other purposes. It is not the farmers need subsidies, even the industry is demanding its share and has in the past got its loan waived off, as the lending institutions were unable to recover it. Giving in to the demands of one or other section of the society will weaken the economic fibrics. It will slip into a sort of socialism, a key for the unscrupulous politicians to seize power at the next election.
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